U.S. ADR and RevPAR impact during the last two downturns

STR continues to monitor each week of U.S. hotel performance data for a possible impact from the COVID-19 outbreak. With expectation of performance declines around this situation, we analyzed U.S. ADR and RevPAR declines post-9/11 and post-2008.

ADR takes time to recover

First, let's explain the math.

Hold the month of the event (September 2001 and September 2008) constant and compute the % change (for 12MMA ADR) from each month following until the % change turns positive again. As you will see, this took 36 months post 9/11 and just under six years post-2008.

As we have noted, dropping ADR is easy, while gaining ADR is difficult.

Post-9/11 room rates declined swiftly for 12 months, but it took double that time to return back to the 12MMA ADR of September 2001.

The same impact was visible after the collapse of Lehman Brothers as 12MMA ADR declined 19 months and took 37 months to recover.

The prior charts shows 12MMA, which hides that ADR declines each month are much more pronounced, often close to 20% in 2008/2009.

It is important to note the differences for the two events:

• 9/11 caused an immediate and sharp decline as well as subsequent “less negative” monthly results
• 2008 started a more gradual ADR decline with a more severe outcome

Of course, ADR is only part of the equation. The demand shock led to occupancy decreases and severe RevPAR declines as can be shown in our indexed data.

Conclusions

• Annualized ADR declines are swift, whereas recovery takes twice as long
• Monthly data shows much more severe impacts